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Gauge Opinion has published the full results of its post budget poll. The results indicate that 54% of the population of England and Wales expect to be worse off over the next year. The poll was carried out immediately after the budget between 4pm and 6pm on the 22nd June and is the first public reaction to the Coalition Government's emergency budget statement.
Congratulations to Mrs Cross from Exeter - winner of the £250 prize draw!
54.4% percent of the people in England and Wales expect to be worse off in a year’s time according to an instant text poll carried immediately after the budget statement. 17.6% believe that they will be better off with 16.8% thinking that their finances will stay the same. 11.1% didn’t know.
The poll conducted by Gauge Opinion was carried out between 4pm and 6pm after the chancellor had made his Budget statement in the House of Commons. The poll participants were randomly selected from a database of 3.5 million mobile phone numbers and contained a spread of age, gender and region to reflect the UK population as a whole.
The poll is the first test of public opinion following George Osbourne’s emergency budget statement.
Men were more confident than women. With 20.2% of men expecting things to get better for them over the next year compared to 15.5% of women.
The most pessimistic region was the Midlands with 58% thinking that things would get worse over the next year. The most confident was the South East.
The Chancellor announced that he was restoring the link between average earnings and pensions in the budget. However, older people were less likely to have formed an opinion about their economic at this stage. Over 50% replying that they didn’t know whether they would be better off in a year’s time.
Gauge Opinion is one of the first polling companies in the UK to use text messages to conduct opinion polls. 480 people took part in the survey. Full tables and a detailed methodology will be published on the Gauge Opinion website within two days. The results are weighted by age, region and gender to ensure a close representation to the UK population as a whole.
As the credits rolled on the Channel 4 Chancellor’s debate last night, a text message was fired off to the Gauge Opinion members’ mobiles. Within minutes the verdict was in and it was a clear victory for Vince Cable. 48% felt that the Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson won the debate with 18% giving the nod to George Osbourne and only 10% identifying the current Chancellor as the winner. However, 25% couldn’t decide between the three.
We are also beginning to make donations to our partner charities now for everyone that takes part. I am currently in Bangladesh, doing some work for the Westminster Foundation and hope to be able to fit in a visit the Sreepur Village who are one of our charities that benefit every time someone signs up to take part in our text polls.
Our sample size is still not quite big enough to make a confident assertion about how well this result reflects the opinion of the British public as a whole. However, more and more people are signing up at gaugeopinion.co.uk
As Gordon Brown gets ready to go to the country in the General Election, Gauge Opinion text poll panel members will be poised to track the twists and turns of the campaign with their texting fingers.